According to its latest “Short-Term Energy Outlook” (STEO), the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts renewable energy, especially solar, will dominate power capacity growth in 2025 and 2026.
Solar additions are expected to reach 26 GW in 2025 and 22 GW in 2026, following a record 37 GW in 2024. Wind capacity will rise by 8 GW and 9 GW over the next two years.
Coal retirements will accelerate, removing 11 GW in 2025 and 4 GW in 2026. Renewable power generation is projected to grow by 12% in 2025, supporting most of the US electricity sector’s expansion.
Natural gas
In 2024, US natural gas-fired power plants generated a total of 1,767 billion kWh, 4% more than in 2023. Natural gas-fired power accounted for around 42% of the US electricity mix, mostly unchanged compared with 2023. The EIA expects natural gas generation to decline in 2025 by 3% to 1,712 billion kWh and decrease a further 1% to 1,692 billion kWh in 2026.
Renewables
The EIA expects renewable power generation will increase by 12% in the US to 1,058 billion kWh in 2025 and increase a further 8% to 1,138 billion kWh in 2026. Renewable sources were the second-largest contributor to US power generation in 2024 and accounted for 945 billion kWh, up 9% from 2023.
Nuclear.
The EIA forecasts that US nuclear power generation will grow 2% to 796 billion kWh in 2025 and increase a further 1% to 800 billion kWh in 2026. Nuclear power generation in 2024 was up slightly from 2023, totaling 781 billion kWh.
Coal
Coal electricity generation was 647 billion kWh in 2024. The EIA expects US coal power generation to remain unchanged at around 640 billion kWh in 2025 and 2026.
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