Can we really hit 2030 clean target?

The UK’s Clean Power 2030 target is just five years away but meeting it will demand unprecedented effort, massive investment and overcoming major challenges in planning, infrastructure and supply chains.

Analysis from the Institution of Mechanical Engineers (IMechE), says Labour’s bold target is going to leave no room for error or delay.

The Clean Power 2030 Action Plan aims for 95% of electricity generation to come from clean sources by 2030, up from 58% in 2024.

Achieving this will mean tripling offshore wind capacity to 43-50GW, significantly increasing solar and onshore wind and scaling up battery storage sixfold. It will also require developing hydrogen and carbon capture technologies.

Meeting these targets will need a huge grid overhaul.

National Energy System Operator (NESO) estimates double the amount of transmission built in the last decade will be required, alongside contracting as much offshore wind capacity in the next two years as in the previous six combined.

Matt Rooney, Head of Policy at IMechE said:

“The target is challenging but achievable”

“The government have given themselves some breathing space by defining ‘clean power’ as a 95% decarbonised grid. The last few percent will be the most difficult – and expensive – to decarbonise.”

Gas will remain

Gas power stations will still play a role, generating electricity during peak demand to stabilise the grid says IMechE.

The new system will also involve an expected 35 GW of gas reserve capacity (down slightly from 35.6 GW, which accounted for 28% (88 TWh) of electricity generation in 2024), meaning an ongoing future for the UK’s current largest source of electricity.

Although ongoing use of the fossil fuel might seem to stretch the definition of ‘clean’ power, it could be needed to meet the 2030 goal.

Mr Rooney added: “Maintaining a strategic reserve of gas power stations makes rapid decarbonisation of the power grid by 2030 more achievable and less risky, whilst having only a small effect on overall UK territorial emissions.

“Resources that would have been deployed going for 100% decarbonisation can be better used in other parts of the energy system.”

Planning and skills

Planning delays pose the biggest challenges to success, along with a significant skills gap. The planning system will need to move much faster and requires reform and an IMechE study shows there is a huge skills gap coming, with the impending retirement of a fifth of the workforce between 2023 and 2028.

Finally an international supply chain means that some energy components, such as wind turbine jacket foundations, are built elsewhere and shipped here – not great for cutting emissions!

With skills shortages, supply chain bottlenecks and tight timelines, immediate and decisive action is essential to achieve the UK’s ambitious clean energy goals.

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