Federal Hurricane Forecasting Saves Lives & Money

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It was just about a month ago that a report came out stating that DOGE activities wasted about $21.7 billion. Yes, the Department of Government Efficiency, which was supposed to save taxpayers vast amounts of money, did not, according to the report.

Eliminating foreign aid, including shutting down USAID, was studied and found to potentially have devastating effects, “More than 14 million of the world’s most vulnerable people — a third of them young children — could die as a result of the Trump administration’s dismantling of US foreign aid, according to research projections.”

Similarly, reducing the staff and work activities of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) may also result in destruction, damage, and the loss of human lives. The Ocean Conservancy just released a statement about how cuts to NOAA’s hurricane forecasting service could hurt Americans. (In May 2025, NOAA forecasters predicted an above-normal hurricane season in the US.)

Amanda Carter, the Ocean Conservancy’s Director of Climate Science, answered some questions about US hurricane forecasting for us.

Since Hurricane Katrina, America’s hurricane forecasts have improved. How have they improved and by how much?

Following the devastation wreaked by Hurricane Katrina and other storms in the early 2000’s, the Bush administration established the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (now called the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program) within NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in 2007. The goal was to improve the accuracy and reliability of hurricane forecasts and to extend the lead time of forecasts so Americans would know earlier and with greater certainty when and where hurricanes would strike, and they really knocked it out of the park. A 5-day forecast in 2025 is roughly equivalent to a 2-day forecast in 2005, meaning lead times and path estimates have significantly improved, to the tune of 50% in the past 20 years. This helps save lives and has also led to an estimated 2 billion dollars in savings per storm.

Since Katrina, has there been an increase in the typical number of hurricanes in the US each year or more severe ones or both?

The total number of hurricanes impacting the U.S. each year hasn’t increased, but they have become more destructive and more dangerous, with greater intensity (windspeed), rainfall, and storm surges. The likelihood of a hurricane being Category 3 or higher has increased by 8% every decade since 1979, essentially doubling since 1980.

How much does climate change contribute to hurricanes in the US?

According to the IPCC, climate change is directly responsible for the increase in intensity and rainfall associated with hurricanes over the past 20 years. The ocean is earth’s largest heat sink, and absorbs over 90% of excess heat as the earth gets hotter. Warmer temperatures lead to greater evaporation. It is quite literally a perfect storm, in that there is more water in the air to fuel hurricanes and fall as intense and devastating rainfall. 

Does NOAA forecast hurricanes and if so, how much work does it do in this domain?

Without NOAA, there is no hurricane forecasting. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) sits within the National Weather Service at NOAA, and our hurricane predictions come from the NHC and are improved upon by scientists in the Hurricane Research Division in NOAA’s research arm. NOAA’s research arm, the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR), houses not only the laboratories that help improve predictions, but much of the monitoring and observation infrastructure — like ocean buoys and gliders — that feed real time data into hurricane models, improving their accuracy and saving lives.

Is NOAA’s forecasting work in danger of being eliminated by budget cuts?

The President’s budget proposed completely eliminating the research arm of NOAA, which would hinder forecasts and prevent their continued improvement if we lost those critical scientists and observation platforms. NOAA is composed of multiple line offices, including the National Weather Service and the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, and all of these offices work together. I used to work at NOAA, and the line offices function well because they are able to draw on data and products from each other to better execute their goals. If you removed OAR, you would lose the ocean observations, scientists, and modelers that are continuously feeding into and working to improve our weather forecasts that NWS provides.

What might happen if NOAA’s hurricane forecasting is halted or diminished?

The loss of NOAA’s forecasting services would be catastrophic. The U.S. fully relies upon NOAA for our hurricane forecasts, including sea level rise and flooding. There is no other body ready or funded to pick up that work. That truly is not an option for our country, and I hope people recognize how absolutely critical NOAA is to protecting American lives, homes and livelihoods.