Goodbye Oil Changes: What 40–80% EV Adoption Will Look Like

For decades, fueling up your car meant a quick stop at your local gas station, and vehicle maintenance was simple and affordable. But imagine your regular fill-up suddenly becoming a frustrating search for dwindling fuel pumps, or discovering that routine repairs now cost twice as much due to disappearing parts and specialized mechanics. As electric vehicles rapidly approach dominance, these scenarios will soon become reality. Welcome to the coming ICE infrastructure collapse, where the familiar convenience and economy of owning a gasoline car is about to vanish faster than most drivers expect.

In the earlier articles of this series, I examined how electric vehicles (EVs) move from niche products to mainstream acceptance. I introduced an integrated framework combining diffusion of innovations, logistic growth (the s-curve), and complex adaptive systems theories to explain this transition. Initially, I identified subtle early signals that emerge around 5% to 15% EV adoption, including infrastructure investment, targeted policy interventions, and shifting consumer attitudes.

Next, we explored the critical mass phase between 15% to 40% adoption, where infrastructure expands rapidly, policy shifts become more decisive, and economic incentives align strongly with electric vehicle growth. Now, looking ahead, we turn to the next stage of this transition, when EV adoption surpasses 40% and rapidly moves toward market dominance at around 80%. During this phase, the infrastructure supporting internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles faces accelerated collapse.

Crossing the 40% adoption mark represents a major tipping point. Beyond this threshold, infrastructure and economic conditions that once made gasoline and diesel vehicles convenient and affordable quickly unravel. The decline of ICE infrastructure occurs rapidly, far faster than most observers currently anticipate. Leading jurisdictions such as Norway and China are already nearing or surpassing this threshold, providing clear examples of what will happen soon in other countries, including Germany and the Netherlands.

It’s worth pointing out that numerous studies, such as those examining digital cameras, smartphones, and renewable energy adoption, show wide variations in how steeply adoption accelerates and how quickly saturation occurs. The s-curve is best understood as a lumpy s that eventually gets there, not a prescriptive or accurate predictive tool. Differences in curve shape and steepness are largely driven by factors like regulatory pressures, economic incentives, infrastructure readiness, and consumer perceptions of convenience and risk. For instance, smartphone adoption accelerated sharply due to strong network effects and minimal infrastructure barriers, while renewable energy adoption has been slower and less uniform due to infrastructure complexity, regulatory inconsistencies, and varying cost dynamics across regions.

Similarly, EV adoption curves differ significantly between countries, shaped by government policy consistency, local charging infrastructure availability, cultural openness to new technologies, and comparative costs of electric versus fossil fuel vehicles. As such, there are large error bars in these projections, and organizations impacted by what’s laid out here should do more local modeling to determine where they are likely to see challenges and opportunities first.

As EV sales move past 40%, gasoline stations begin closing at an accelerated pace. In Norway, EVs already represent over 90% of new car sales, and total fleet electrification is projected to approach 80% by the early 2030s. Gasoline stations, once plentiful, will soon become scarce. Remaining fuel stations will mainly exist along major highways or serve niche markets such as remote rural areas.

A comment on an earlier article in this series shared that Scandinavian gas stations were going all in on fast DC charging, but as I noted, that’s something that will work on highways, but not within most urban areas, where recharging will occur at home, at work, at restaurants and shopping centers. In urban and suburban settings, consumers will find gasoline increasingly inconvenient to obtain, prompting further adoption of electric vehicles.

And to somewhat forestall the inevitable tide of comments about multi-unit residential buildings and street parking, in the past three years I’ve walked the streets of Vancouver, Montreal, London, Rotterdam, Amsterdam, Antwerp, Ghent, Auckland, and Wellington. Each of these cities has innovative solutions. I’ve seen firsthand lightpost charging on city streets, charging wires over sidewalks dangling to streetside parking, in-sidewalk channels for power cables, flat cables crossing sidewalks, charging at airports, charging in special parking spots on streets, charging at train stations, charging at shopping centers, charging in work parking lots, and more. I’ve written about getting EV charging for cars and bikes into my vertical village (aka condo building), something that’s occurring globally. It’s just not that hard to get reasonable amounts of electricity to any spot in urban areas for slow charging, which is all that’s required for everything except longer road trips in North America and Europe.

I grew up in Canada, where for decades every parking lot that wasn’t in southern BC had free electrical cables for block heaters so that cars would start in the morning and at the close of work days. We ripped out all of that infrastructure with the introduction of cars that would start even if they were cold. The same juice that enabled ICE car engines to start at -30° Celsius would add 50-70 km of range to an EV over a workday and more overnight. Putting that infrastructure back isn’t rocket science.

In China, where EV adoption surpassed 50% of new car sales recently, gasoline station closures will accelerate sharply by the late 2020s. Independent fuel stations will face closures first, due to declining sales volumes and profitability. Major oil companies are already shifting investment away from gasoline retail operations toward extensive electric charging networks. This strategic shift will leave gasoline stations financially unsustainable across large areas, forcing widespread closures or conversions to EV charging hubs.

Germany and the Netherlands, currently moving rapidly toward the 40% EV adoption milestone, will soon follow similar trajectories. By 2027 to 2030, closures of gasoline stations will accelerate notably. Independent and smaller chains will be the first casualties. This shift will be clearly visible by the early 2030s, when major urban areas in these countries experience notable reductions in gasoline availability. Drivers accustomed to convenient fueling will be forced to travel greater distances or switch to electric vehicles to avoid inconvenience and escalating fuel costs.

Alongside fuel stations, the traditional repair and maintenance sector serving internal combustion vehicles will face rapid shrinkage as EVs cross the 40% threshold. Businesses specializing in mufflers, brakes, oil changes, and engine repairs depend entirely on frequent maintenance required by gasoline and diesel vehicles. Electric cars, with significantly fewer moving parts and lower maintenance needs, remove the foundation of these businesses. Muffler shops will be among the first to close entirely, given that EVs have no exhaust systems or mufflers to service.

Oil-change businesses will similarly experience rapid declines, as electric cars do not require oil at all. With ICE vehicles rapidly diminishing in number, quick-service oil change locations across Norway, China, Germany, and the Netherlands will shut down or face significant financial pressures. Brake service specialists also face declining revenues, since EVs use regenerative braking that substantially reduces brake wear. Although some brake shops will attempt to diversify, the overall size of this market will shrink dramatically within a decade.

The resulting economic disruption from these closures will ripple through regional economies, affecting employment and local commerce. Countries at the forefront of EV adoption must urgently plan retraining and economic transition programs for automotive technicians and service industry workers displaced by this transition. Without proactive measures, the decline of ICE-focused businesses will cause significant local job losses, particularly in smaller towns and rural communities dependent on automotive services for economic stability.

Spare parts availability for ICE vehicles will also decline rapidly once EV adoption passes the 40% mark. Automotive manufacturers will sharply reduce or eliminate production of ICE-specific components such as engine parts, exhaust systems, and specialized lubricants. Production economies of scale will vanish quickly, causing steep price increases and supply shortages. ICE vehicle owners in Norway and China are likely to experience widespread spare parts scarcity by the late 2020s. In Germany and the Netherlands, these shortages will become evident by the early 2030s, further raising the cost of ICE vehicle ownership.

As spare parts become harder to find and more expensive, routine repairs and maintenance will become prohibitively costly. Vehicle owners will face significantly higher costs for formerly simple tasks such as brake replacement, muffler repairs, or engine maintenance. Insurance premiums for ICE vehicles will also rise sharply, as insurers account for increased repair costs, declining resale values, and regulatory restrictions. The economic disadvantages of owning an ICE vehicle will rapidly compound, creating further incentives to transition to electric vehicles.

In practical terms, daily life for ICE vehicle owners will soon become much more difficult and expensive. Regular fueling will involve inconvenient detours as local gasoline stations close. Routine maintenance tasks will become costly ordeals rather than quick stops at local garages. Regulatory changes, such as expanding low-emission zones in major European cities, will impose additional restrictions on ICE vehicle operation, further limiting convenience. I experienced the range of these zero emissions zones in Europe as I walked around five cities over as many weeks recently, appreciating the clean air and quiet streets, often forgetting to turn on the noise cancellation on my earbuds, something almost essential in North American cities. For many consumers, these growing difficulties will become decisive reasons to abandon gasoline and diesel vehicles altogether.

While these changes are just extensions of what starts between 15% and 40%, they accelerate rapidly after 40%. All of these services are businesses, usually low-margin businesses. They won’t persist if they can’t make a profit, and they won’t. The ones that stay to service the dwindling number of ICE vehicles will jack up prices and likely see higher margins, but that will only last for a while.

Lessons from early leaders like Norway and China clearly illustrate what Germany, the Netherlands, and other countries can expect as they cross similar adoption thresholds. Norway’s experience, reaching near-total electrification, provides insight into how quickly infrastructure and economic conditions deteriorate for ICE vehicle owners. China’s aggressive policy-driven transition underscores the speed at which systemic infrastructure changes can occur, even in large and complex markets. Germany and the Netherlands, now approaching these critical tipping points, must rapidly adapt their policies and economic plans to manage imminent disruptions effectively.

Historical parallels underscore the speed and depth of these transformations. Digital photography’s rapid displacement of film cameras in the mid-2000s caused sudden economic collapse for film processing labs and camera manufacturers like Kodak. The video rental industry collapsed swiftly after streaming services passed critical market share around 2012, eliminating thousands of stores and jobs within just a few years. Landline telephones faced rapid decline once smartphone adoption accelerated after 2010, with infrastructure and employment quickly following consumer shifts.

These examples clearly indicate the urgency of preparing now for what comes next in the automotive sector. Policymakers must implement proactive infrastructure transition plans, retraining initiatives, and economic support measures immediately. Businesses relying heavily on ICE vehicles need to diversify quickly to avoid catastrophic revenue losses. Consumers considering vehicle purchases must carefully weigh the growing costs and declining convenience of internal combustion cars. Acting now to prepare for these imminent disruptions will enable smoother transitions, minimizing economic impacts and maximizing the opportunities presented by the EV revolution.