Missing the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target does not derail the global path to net zero but it will reshape how climate policy is designed and delivered.
That is the central finding of new research from the Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change which says temporary “overshoot” of temperature targets is increasingly seen as likely but does not change the core requirement to reach net zero emissions around mid century.
The study published in Nature Climate Change analysed how climate scenarios have evolved over the past three decades as emissions have continued to rise.
Researchers say overshoot has moved from a modelling tool used to test ambitious climate targets to a structural feature of many realistic pathways.
Under many scenarios global temperatures could temporarily rise above the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C threshold before later falling back.
Scientists say a limited overshoot of around 1.8°C would still require global carbon dioxide emissions to reach net zero between 2050 and 2060.
Massimo Tavoni a scientist at CMCC said: “In a world of limited overshoot the core objective of strong decarbonization and net zero remains intact.”
He added: “What overshoot does however is reshape how the transition unfolds how we implement the transition manage risks and ensure policies are fair and effective.”
The research suggests overshoot does not change the destination but it does alter the journey.
More extreme weather events
Even a small breach of the temperature target is expected to increase the likelihood of extreme weather events and could amplify the social and economic impacts of climate change.
Scientists say those risks may fall unevenly across regions and generations depending on how policies are designed and how mitigation costs are shared.
Overshoot would also increase the need for carbon dioxide removal technologies.
These systems which capture and permanently remove CO₂ from the atmosphere would be needed to bring global temperatures back down after emissions peak.
However the study says carbon removal will be necessary even in scenarios that stay close to the Paris targets.
Larger overshoots beyond the Paris goals would introduce far greater uncertainty potentially requiring massive carbon removal programmes or even geoengineering interventions.
Researchers say the challenge now is not simply limiting warming but designing climate strategies that manage risk fairly in a world where some degree of overshoot appears increasingly likely.
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